Ember

Ember is a revolutionary public AI prediction engine designed to enhance the trustworthiness of AI predictions by ensuring transparency and accountability. Built on the principle that an AI's reasoning should be visible, Ember operates daily at 7 AM EST, utilizing three distinct AI models—Claude from Anthropic, Grok from xAI, and Gemini from Google. Each of these models independently assesses live Polymarket markets without collaboration, marking their diverging predictions as high-conviction signals when they differ from the crowd by 10 or more points. This unique approach not only allows users to track the accuracy of predictions through Brier scores but also guarantees that every decision is timestamped and locked, fostering a culture of accountability. With a commitment to building a public record of predictions over 365 days, Ember serves as a vital tool for bettors, investors, and enthusiasts, providing them with the insights needed to make informed decisions based on real data and AI analysis.

Real-Time Market Analysis

Ember synthesizes data from multiple sources, including prediction markets, bookmaker lines, and AI research feeds. This extensive intelligence stack runs daily at 7 AM EST, enabling users to access the latest insights before any calls are published.

Independent AI Predictions

Three AI models—Claude, Grok, and Gemini—operate independently to assign probabilities to market outcomes. Their individual assessments are recorded, ensuring that consensus is not prioritized over diverse reasoning, which enriches the predictive quality.

High-Conviction Signal Alerts

When there is a divergence of 10 or more points between Ember's predictions and the crowd's consensus on Polymarket, it triggers a high-conviction signal. This feature helps users identify where the potential edge lies, guiding their betting or investment strategies.

Immutable Record Keeping

Every prediction made by Ember is timestamped and locked before the outcome is known, with no edits or deletions allowed. This level of transparency ensures that users can trust the integrity of the data and the predictions made over the entire 365-day tracking period.

Enhancing Betting Strategies

Bettors can leverage Ember's independent AI predictions to refine their betting strategies. By understanding where the AIs diverge from the crowd, users can identify potentially mispriced markets and capitalize on opportunities.

Informed Investment Decisions

Investors looking to base their decisions on AI insights can utilize Ember's high-conviction signals to inform their strategies, allowing them to invest with more certainty and accuracy in rapidly changing markets.

Academic Research

Researchers studying AI behavior and prediction models can analyze Ember's extensive public record, providing a unique dataset for exploring the efficacy of differing AI approaches in predicting market outcomes.

Competitive Analysis

Businesses can use Ember's predictions to gauge market sentiment and competitor performance. By understanding the predictive divergences, companies can better position themselves within their industries and adjust their strategies accordingly.

How does Ember ensure the accuracy of its predictions?

Ember tracks the accuracy of its predictions using Brier scores, a metric that evaluates both the correctness and confidence of predictions. This meticulous tracking allows users to assess performance over time.

What happens if all three AIs agree on a prediction?

When all three AI models agree, it is documented, but the real value lies in their divergences. These disagreements are what Ember highlights as potential high-conviction signals, offering insights into market mispricings.

Can users access historical data from Ember?

Yes, Ember builds a public record of all predictions made throughout the 365-day period. Users can review historical data to analyze past predictions and their outcomes, which aids in developing better betting or investment strategies.

How often does Ember update its predictions?

Ember updates its predictions daily at 7 AM EST, providing fresh insights to subscribers before public release. This timing advantage allows users to act on predictions before they become widely known.